617888九五至尊娱乐变化与农业

各种权威报告, most notably the multiagency 2018 Fourth National 617888九五至尊娱乐 Assessment, have reviewed what science is telling US farmers to expect in coming decades—and it’s not pretty.

617888九五至尊娱乐变化趋势

降水模式的变化. Rainfall patterns have already begun shifting across the country, and such changes are expected to intensify over the coming years. This is likely to mean more intense periods of heavy rain and longer dry periods, 即使是在同一地区.

不断变化的温度模式. 平均气温上升, 全年更极端的高温, 冬天足够凉爽的日子越来越少, and more frequent cold-season thaws will likely affect farmers in all regions.

617888九五至尊娱乐变化影响

洪水. We’ve already seen an increase in flooding in many agricultural regions of the country, 包括中西部地区, 南部平原, 和加州. Sea level rise is also ratcheting up the frequency and intensity of flooding on farms in coastal regions. 这些代价高昂的洪水摧毁了庄稼和牲畜, 加速土壤侵蚀, 污染水, 破坏道路, 桥梁, 学校, 以及其他基础设施.

干旱. 水太少和水太多一样有害. 严重的干旱使农作物损失惨重, 牲畜, 以及全国许多地区的农民, 最著名的是加州, 大平原, 以及中西部地区, over the past decade—and science tells us that rising temperatures will likely make such 干旱 even worse, 耗竭的水供应和, 在某些情况下, 引发毁灭性的野火.

作物和牲畜生存能力的变化. Farmers choose crop varieties and animal breeds that are well suited to local conditions. 随着这些条件在未来几十年迅速变化, many farmers will be forced to rethink some of their choices—which can mean making new capital investments, 寻找新市场, 学习新的实践.

新的害虫、病原体和杂草问题. 就像农民需要寻找新的作物一样, 牲畜, 和实践, 他们将不得不应对新的威胁. An insect or weed that couldn’t thrive north of Texas in decades past may find Iowa a perfect fit going forward—and farmers will have to adapt.

工业放大器

退化土壤. Typical monoculture cropping systems leave soil bare for much of the year, 依赖合成肥料, 定期耕地. These practices leave soils low in organic matter and prevent formation of deep, 复杂根系. Among the results: reduced water-holding capacity (which worsens drought impacts), and increased vulnerability to erosion and water pollution (which worsens flood impacts).

简化的风景. Industrial agriculture treats the farm as a crop factory rather than a managed ecosystem, 幅员辽阔，生物多样性极低. This lack of diversity in farming operations exposes farmers to greater risk and amplifies climate impacts such as changes in crop viability and encroaching pests.

密集的输入. The industrial farm’s heavy reliance on fertilizers and pesticides may become even more costly to struggling farmers as climate impacts 加速土壤侵蚀 and increase pest problems. Heavy use of such chemicals will also increase the pollution burden faced by downstream communities as flooding increases. Farmers may also increase irrigation in response to rising temperature extremes and drought, 进一步消耗宝贵的水资源供应.

这意味着什么?

How will these industrially amplified climate change impacts affect people—farmers, 农村社区居民, 以及我们所有依赖农民生产的食物的人? 以各种方式:

• As 夏季高温加剧, farmers and farm workers will face increasingly grueling and potentially unsafe working conditions.
• Accelerating crop failures and 牲畜 losses will make farmers with access to insurance or disaster relief programs more reliant on those taxpayer-funded supports, while those without sufficient safety nets will face additional challenges. Failing farms and stagnating farm profits will also increase suffering in many rural communities.
• 农业社区将是最先感受到这种变化的群体之一 极端天气 加剧 农业的影响 on water resources—with nearby water supplies polluted or depleted before the damage extends to drinking water and fisheries far downstream.

在全国范围内, reductions to agricultural productivity or sudden losses of crops or 牲畜 will likely have ripple effects, 包括粮食价格上涨和粮食不安全状况加剧.

Business as usual won’t protect the future of our 食物 supply—or the well-being of the farmers and communities that produce it. 我们需要 take concrete steps to prepare for climate impacts on agriculture and to reduce both their severity and our vulnerability to them.

We also need to remember that climate change risks aren’t distributed equally—and neither are the pathways to climate adaptation. Public policies and institutional practices have long denied communities of color, 低收入群体, and tribal communities access to critical resources and decision-making processes, leaving them with fewer options and more risk in the face of climate impacts. So it’s crucial to ensure that these communities have a voice in shaping our adaptation strategies.

帮助农业社区应对严重影响

当617888九五至尊娱乐影响来袭, support systems need to be in place to help communities cope and recover:

庇护所及其他设施 提供住房, 食物, 急救, and other immediate needs for people whose lives have been disrupted or displaced by floods, 干旱, 火灾, 或风暴.

对地方能力和基础设施的投资 to support people harmed by climate impacts as they rethink or rebuild their lives and businesses. 这不仅包括通信基础设施, 运输, 水和卫生设施, but also training in new practices and opportunities that build adaptive capacity.

通过使农场更有弹性来减少破坏

Our farms and farm communities don’t have to be sitting ducks for climate impacts. Forward-looking farmers and scientists are finding new, climate-resilient ways to produce our 食物:

建立更健康、更“海绵状”的土壤 through practices—such as planting cover crops and deep-rooted perennials—that 增加土壤承载力 吸收雨水:吸收大雨并在干旱时期保持水分;

使农场更强大 将它们重新设计成多样化的农业生态系统-结合树木和本地多年生植物, 减少对化肥和农药的依赖, 重新整合作物和牲畜;

Develop new crop varieties, 牲畜 breeds, and farm practices specifically designed to help farmers adapt to evolving climate realities.

解决问题的根源

最后, 无论我们做什么来帮助农民适应617888九五至尊娱乐变化, we still face the urgent need and obligation to reduce the source of the problem as far and as fast as we can. 这意味着 使吸热气体的净排放量降至零，而且马上就做.

幸运的是, our farm and 食物 system can be an important part of the solution, both by reducing emissions at every stage of the 食物 production and distribution process, 并通过 建立能够吸收(储存)更多碳的农业生态系统.

What policy levers can we pull to help get these solutions off the ground?

投资公共研究. Publicly funded research provides farmers with the tools and information they need to maximize efficiency and productivity. 随着617888九五至尊娱乐变化, 农民比以往任何时候都更需要617888九五至尊娱乐, yet public funding for research that can help them cope has been in short supply. 农业生态学研究——它产生了一种长期的, literally root-deep solutions that can help farms stay viable for generations—资金特别不足.

扩大保护项目 在联邦农业法案中 农民更容易接受 sustainable practices that will make their farms more climate-resilient. 我们需要 增加他们的资金和影响力.

加强安全网(并使其成为恢复力的驱动力). 不管617888九五至尊娱乐和前瞻性政策能做什么, farms across the country will be challenged—and some more than others. It’s essential that we provide farm families and communities with the support they need to survive the climate crisis and become more resilient. 这包括更好的 农作物保险项目, 为农民和农场工人提供医疗保健, 和有效的, 应急救灾计划.

实现净零排放. 我们需要 prioritize policies to drastically reduce our climate emissions and give us a chance of getting to net zero ASAP. 扭转了特朗普政府退出 《617888九五至尊娱乐》 会是一个好的开始，但是没有吗 我们能做的还有很多.